After 18 months of keeping Riyadh at arm's length, the White House appears open to change: Biden reportedly could meet in the coming weeks with Prince Mohammed, the de facto head of the Saudi government. Persistent high energy prices in the run-up to US midterm elections in November appear to be affecting the Biden administration's calculation. There's no guarantee, however, that such diplomatic outreach will bring relief: Opec kingpin Saudi Arabia has its own wants and needs — and those include holding Russia close in the Opec-plus alliance, with an eye on the energy transition.

For Biden, “The politics are: High gas prices are really bad for him politically. Anything that brings those prices down help him quite a lot,” said Brian Katulis at the Middle East Institute. Those high prices are a much greater political risk than the criticisms Biden faces from progressives critical of the crown prince, Katulis added.

The news of Biden's possible visit followed a late May trip by White House Middle East Adviser Brett McGurk and Energy Envoy Amos Hochstein to Riyadh. Opec-plus' Jun. 2 decision to increase planned supply additions by 50% for the next two months, accelerating the wind-down of the group’s pandemic-induced production cuts, was described by US officials as “very positive." The extra barrels may be marginal for now but might lay the groundwork for further increases in production from September, a month ahead of schedule.

More broadly, the administration has “come to an understanding that this desire to peripheralize [Prince Mohammed], who is likely going to be king of Saudi Arabia for the next 40 years or so, it’s not working,” said David Schenker, the State Department’s assistant secretary for Near Eastern Affairs during the administration of former President Donald Trump.

To that end, White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre on Tuesday framed a potential meeting between Biden and Prince Mohammed as routine. “Every president since FDR has met with Saudi leaders, and the president considers Saudi Arabia an important partner in a host of regional and global strategies, including other efforts to end the war in Yemen, contain Iran and counterterrorism.” Those comments are a marked change from Biden describing Saudi Arabia as a “pariah” on the campaign trail and the White House insisting that the crown prince and president were not diplomatic counterparts.

That’s not to say that a smoother relationship with Riyadh will rapidly ease pricing pressure at the pump. While crude prices remain the largest factor in determining the price of gasoline, products markets remain tight: The world lost some 4 million barrels per day of refining capacity during the pandemic, and prices of jet fuel, diesel and gasoline are all high. The priority Saudi Arabia attaches to preserving the Opec-plus alliance with Russia, whose production is being hit by sanctions over the Ukraine war, could also mitigate against any major supply shifts. Mideast Gulf Opec-plus delegates reiterate that market conditions will drive output decisions when they next meet on Jun. 30, and they still see a global crude surplus by the end of the year.

The political pressure related to high energy prices may be a motivator, but changes in two irritants in the bilateral relationship also make progress easier. The chances of achieving a nuclear deal with Iran now look narrower than at any point since Biden came to office pledging to renew the 2015 agreement strongly opposed by Gulf states. And a cease-fire in Yemen was extended last week.

The prospect of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program ending also crystalizes the need for better exchange. “This effort to restore ties between Saudi and the US is partly driven by pre-emptive diplomacy. You want to be on better terms in case the region faces more turmoil soon,” says Matt Reed at consultancy Foreign Reports.

At a more basic level, Gulf countries have been worried about the US commitment to the energy-for-military security exchange that has underpinned Washington’s involvement in the region for decades. The perception is that the Biden administration has been slow to react to attacks and threats posed by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis.

Key to assuaging those concerns is finding a “stronger agreement that buffers them from the vicissitudes of US politics,” Katulis said, a difficult feat when the US is not inclined to a Nato-style agreement for the region. One way of doing that is adding US troops to the country as a signal Washington would be primed to retaliate if a key base were attacked, observers say. Integrating regional drone systems is another step the US could take to bolster regional security without a large troop commitment, Schenker said.

As officials work toward a high-profile meeting in the coming weeks, observers expect a focus on common ground, particularly with the planned visits of Saudi Commerce Minister Majid bin Abdullah al-Qasabi and Investment Minister Khalid al-Faleh to Washington this month. Those could include announcements around investments or economic issues that concern leaders in both countries, such as regional food security.

“There’s still so much to be gained by a strong relationship with the US that the Saudis can’t forfeit it,” Reed says, pointing in particular to technology investment.

Still, closer ties to Riyadh are clearly sensitive for Biden, who last week seemed to suggest broader regional issues were on the table when asked about a visit with Prince Mohammed. “Look, I'm not going to change my view on human rights but as president of the United States, my job is to bring peace if I can,” Biden told reporters last week, saying he was focused on putting an end to "some of the senseless wars between Israel and the Arab nations."

The framing echoes the Abraham accords brokered by the Trump administration that triggered the normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates. But observers so far seem skeptical of a similar formal normalization of Saudi-Israel relations, particularly under King Salman, even if some tentative steps toward that end are being made.

Biden's half-hearted return to an old formula — US as peacemaker — reflects the struggle to get to grips with the changed dynamics. Conventional US-Saudi ties started fading during the former Barack Obama administration, while Trump engaged in a very transactional relationship. Biden now finds himself needing to find some way to craft an effective US Saudi policy — but is treading on uncertain ground.